‘Eurovision for politicians’: Lithuania’s 2024 presidential election holds little suspense

The presidential election is one of the big political events in Lithuania in 2024. The candidate roster is getting longer, although the only intrigue, analysts say, is who can challenge the incumbent. But candidates may be running for other reasons than victory.

In five months, Lithuanian voters will hit the polls to elect the master of ‘Daukanto Square’, one of the designations of the Lithuanian president’s office.

The incumbent, Gitanas Nausėda, is a clear favourite and after he announced his bid for re-election in December, observers say there is much less suspense in the race.

“The intrigue – for now – is whether there will be a second round and who will compete with the incumbent president,” says Ramūnas Vilpišauskas, a professor at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science.

Besides Nausėda, five candidates nominated by political parties and five independents have so far declared their intentions to run:

• Ingrida Šimonytė, prime minister and nominee of the conservative Homeland Union (TS-LKD);
• Dainius Žalimas, law professor and former Constitutional Court chairman, nominee of the liberal Freedom Party;
• Aurelijus Veryga, MP and former health minister, nominee of the opposition Farmers and Greens Union (LVŽS);
• Giedrimas Jeglinskas, former NATO assistant secretary general for executive management, nominee of the opposition Democrats for Lithuania party;
• Mantas Varaška, mayor of Kazlų Rūda and nominee of the Party of Regions.

The self-nominated candidates are:

• Ignas Vėgėlė, lawyer and activist against Covid restrictions;
• Eduardas Vaitkus, medical doctor, opponent of Covid vaccination for kids;
• Valdas Tutkus, former commander of the Lithuanian armed forces;
• Zenonas Andrulėnas, politician;
• Antanas Kandrotas, an activist who is on trial for organising a riot near the parliament building in August 2021.

The list so far also includes some notable absences, such as the candidate of the Social Democratic Party. Its leader, MEP Vilija Blinkevičiūtė is currently one of the most popular politicians in the country but has persistently refused to say whether she will run for president.

“The remaining electoral intrigue is Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, who can seriously change the situation on the left side of the spectrum. If she does not run and the Social Democrats endorse Nausėda, then the intrigue is over,” says Virgis Valentinavičius, an associate professor at Mykolas Romeris University (MRU).

Political analysts agree, however, that it is useful for parties to have their own candidates in presidential elections. Especially this year, when the presidential race will be followed shortly by the European Parliament elections and the general elections in the autumn.

“Visibility is very important for politicians, but this is usually weighed against the resources available and how much they will need to run a campaign. For this reason, I think that not all parties will decide to nominate a candidate,” Vilpišauskas tells LRT TV.

Opposition candidates may have an advantage since those nominated by the current ruling coalition – Šimonytė and Žalimas – will be associated with the incumbent government’s policies.

“Since the government is evaluated negatively, naturally, they will get a certain share of the blame,” says Professor Mindaugas Jurkynas, head of the Political Science Department at Vytautas Magnus University in Kaunas.

Different motivations may be at play in the case of independent candidates.

“Someone may be running because they think they are a genius [...]. Fringe politicians want to make a name for themselves, while more serious candidates want to raise their profile, even though they know full well that they have no chance of winning,” says Valentinavičius.

Mindaugas Lapinskas, a communications expert, compares the participation of some candidates in the elections to performing at Eurovision.

“Some people go on stage to get a spot on TV, and this applies to singers and politicians alike. Some people think they have what it takes and once they get some exposure, they will sweep everything away. Some people are inadequate in their assessment of their own potential,” says the communication expert.

Moreover, for less well-known candidates, the presidential bid may serve as a springboard for political careers.

“The campaign may be a rehearsal and a way of mobilising potential votes before the parliamentary elections. Who will then form a coalition with whom is another question, but there are a lot of radically conservative people, 10-15 percent,” says Jurkynas.

The list of candidates is still subject to change: those who wish to register for the elections can do so until February 19. By the end of March, they will have to collect at least 20,000 signatures. The vote will take place on May 12, with the potential runoffs between two top candidates two weeks later.