Higher education 'enrolment cliff' likely to open doors for more Indian students

The number of Indian students enrolling in American universities is set to surge five times to over 1 million per year by 2030 amid a dramatic decline in the population of college-age students in the US, a trend referred to as the 'enrolment cliff'. This event was triggered by the recession in the late 2000s, leading to uncertainty in the employment market and lower birth rates.

The number of Indian students enrolling in American universities is set to surge five times to over 1 million per year by 2030 amid a dramatic decline in the population of college-age students in the US, a trend referred to as the ‘enrolment cliff’.

The US could hit the edge of the enrolment cliff as early as 2025, which could result in a 15-20% increase in the number of Indian students enrolling in American universities by 2026, according to study abroad experts.

In 2023, 268,923 Indian students chose to study in the US.

“This (the enrolment cliff) is an event that was triggered long back in the late 2000s when the recession led to uncertainty in the employment market, leading to lower birth rates in the coming years,” said Akshay Chaturvedi, chief executive of Leverage.biz. “That, over time, transformed into a continuous decline in K-12 enrolment numbers across the country. The cliff is expected to start for the college education landscape in 2025, a full 16-17 years post-2008.”

According to the National Center for Education Statistics of the US department of education, undergraduate enrolment in the US topped out in 2010-11 at 18.1 million. It then witnessed a steady decline, with a sharp drop in the first full academic year of the pandemic.

As of fall 2022, undergraduate enrolment was just under 15.1 million, according to estimates of the National Student Clearinghouse Research Center. Since 2020, around 1.23 million American undergrads have vanished from American college and university campuses, a 4% decline.

The problem is further exacerbated by the dwindling number of American high school graduates.

Over the last 3-5 years, American universities have started active and aggressive international student admissions.

In 2023—for the third year in a row—a record number of Indian students travelled to the US to pursue higher education, according to the Open Doors Report. With 268,923 students in the academic year 2022-23, there was a 35% increase in the number of international students from India to the US. In 2022, 199,182 students from India went to the US.

Indian students make up more than a fourth of the over 1 million foreign students studying in the US.

Raghwa Gopal, chief executive of M Square Media, said the enrolment decline due to demographic shifts could lead American institutions to enhance their value proposition to international students.

“This involves not just financial incentives but also expanded support services, career development opportunities and programmes that cater to the global job market,” said Gopal.

Although Vibha Kagzi, chief executive of ReachIvy.com, believes that top-ranked universities will be insulated from the enrolment cliff, she subscribes to the notion that there is pent-up demand for higher education abroad that American colleges are eager to tap into.

“I expect the over 200,000 Indian students currently in the US to grow 15-20% by 2026. This incoming talent pipeline benefits both countries,” she said.

Chaturvedi though is a bit more bullish about the prospects.

“In the US, we are seeing the most demand for universities located in Ohio, California, Texas, Massachusetts, the New York area and Illinois. I expect Indian student enrolment numbers in the US to grow to more than 1 million students, over five times, by the end of this decade,” he said.

While the potential regime change could impact visa regulations for international students in the US, Kagzi believes universities will advocate for favourable visa policies to enable the enrolment of qualified global talent.

“Given enrolment pressures facing universities, demand for Indian students is expected to persist regardless of administration change,” she said.