What are the prospects for Poland's upcoming local elections?
Local elections in Poland, following the parliamentary election held last October, are expected to see the newly elected governing parties performing well, while the recently defeated right-wing opposition may struggle. However, with emerging conflicts within the ruling coalition, the electoral success of the eclectic agrarian-liberal centrist Third Way and the radical right could become pivotal in several closely contested regional elections.
Scheduled for April 7, these local elections will see Poles voting for thousands of councillors and local mayors in parish, county, and regional contests, with second-round run-offs two weeks later if no mayoral candidate secures over 50% of the vote. Originally slated for last autumn, these elections were postponed for six months to avoid clashing with the parliamentary poll.
These elections are crucial as they provide the first significant test of public opinion since the parliamentary election that ended the eight-year rule of the right-wing Law and Justice (PiS) party. In December, a new coalition government led by Donald Tusk, leader of the liberal-centrist Civic Platform (PO), was sworn in, marking a return to power for PO after eight years in opposition.
However, the local elections pose a tough challenge for PiS, as parties that recently suffered electoral defeat often perform poorly in post-election polls due to demoralized supporters being less likely to turn out to vote. According to opinion polls, PiS's support is currently around 30%, compared to 35% in the parliamentary election. A second consecutive election loss could deepen internal divisions within PiS and dampen activist morale.
In previous local elections, PiS struggled to win mayoral contests in Poland's larger towns and cities, where the party lacked prospects of victory. The aggregated vote share in elections to the 16 regional authorities serves as a key measure of party support, with regional councils playing a vital role in distributing EU funds and local party patronage.
The local elections also highlight emerging conflicts within the ruling coalition, particularly regarding the contentious issue of abortion. While there is consensus within the coalition to reverse a near-total ban on abortions, there are differing views on the specifics of the legislation. These divisions have led to delays in parliamentary debates and sparked tensions within the coalition.
Furthermore, the electoral success of the Third Way coalition and the radical right could determine the outcome of several regional assemblies. The Warsaw mayoral election, in particular, will be closely watched, with PO incumbent Rafał Trzaskowski facing challenges from both PiS and the radical-left Together party.
Overall, the local elections in Poland represent a significant political event, providing insights into shifting party dynamics and setting the stage for future electoral battles, including the presidential election in 2025.